The more volatile the world becomes the more we rely on forecasts, predictions, and calculations. Whether it’s a turbulent economy, a new market, or the launch of a breakthrough product – marketing strategists cling to their research reports like crystal balls. Gartner, Ovum, the CBI, the EIU – who you get your predictions from and which ones you build your strategy upon depends on your industry. And for marketing people, as times get tougher, the assumed behaviour of the ABC1 crowd becomes a life-raft. But it’s getting harder to predict. How will the bling-bling society behave when they’re strapped for cash? Sensible (switching power suppliers and maximising current assets) or speculative (investing in the high risk returns, refusing to give up the luxuries)?
How can you predict the unpredictable? Complex economic models provide a comfort factor to prop up a multi-million pound strategy but the reading of tea leaves might be as helpful.
It’s times like these that people start relying on magic. It’s a recognised human behaviour that can be traced back to the caves. “Should we hunt on this side of the mountain?” “Only if the clouds are shaped in a certain way.” “Shall we move the flock to safer ground?” “Red sky at night – shepherd’s delight.” “Do we fight in the morning?” “The entrails from this slaughtered goat will have the answer.”
In The 1984 California Management Review, Martin L. Gimpl said, “superstitions are the vehicle whereby charismatic leaders provide feelings of certainty in otherwise uncertain times.” And superstitions can deliver great results. Choosing random locations to hunt based on the results of cloud formation or cracks in burnt bones (like the Native Americans did) reduces the likelihood of overhunting one area or teaching the animals to avoid predictable hunters.
How many PR and marketing folk rely on ‘rules of engagement’ that no longer apply? Press releases only go out on a certain day of the week – headings must be X words long – it’s more difficult to get hold of a journalist on a sunny day? Real or random – the confidence of someone with inside knowledge can’t fail to impress the client. But it’s only the results themselves that provide the answer. So measure them. This week, next month, year by year. If someone’s superstition is bringing you a great communication campaign then keep going. If the report and research-fuelled strategy is getting customers to beat a path to your door then don’t stop now. Action is always better than inertia – especially during the tricky times.
But don’t really be fooled by the magic. It’s not real, you know.
How can you predict the unpredictable? Complex economic models provide a comfort factor to prop up a multi-million pound strategy but the reading of tea leaves might be as helpful.
It’s times like these that people start relying on magic. It’s a recognised human behaviour that can be traced back to the caves. “Should we hunt on this side of the mountain?” “Only if the clouds are shaped in a certain way.” “Shall we move the flock to safer ground?” “Red sky at night – shepherd’s delight.” “Do we fight in the morning?” “The entrails from this slaughtered goat will have the answer.”
In The 1984 California Management Review, Martin L. Gimpl said, “superstitions are the vehicle whereby charismatic leaders provide feelings of certainty in otherwise uncertain times.” And superstitions can deliver great results. Choosing random locations to hunt based on the results of cloud formation or cracks in burnt bones (like the Native Americans did) reduces the likelihood of overhunting one area or teaching the animals to avoid predictable hunters.
How many PR and marketing folk rely on ‘rules of engagement’ that no longer apply? Press releases only go out on a certain day of the week – headings must be X words long – it’s more difficult to get hold of a journalist on a sunny day? Real or random – the confidence of someone with inside knowledge can’t fail to impress the client. But it’s only the results themselves that provide the answer. So measure them. This week, next month, year by year. If someone’s superstition is bringing you a great communication campaign then keep going. If the report and research-fuelled strategy is getting customers to beat a path to your door then don’t stop now. Action is always better than inertia – especially during the tricky times.
But don’t really be fooled by the magic. It’s not real, you know.
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